The 2020 census will also highlight the sharp growth divide between the old and the young in America, as suggested by estimates from the Census Bureau’s National Demographic Analysis. Yet such moves might be temporary at best, and there is a clear possibility that the long-term stagnation in the nation’s geographic mobility over the past decade could reemerge as the pandemic subsides. It is certainly possible that mobility rates could tick up in the 2020-to-2021 period because of COVID-19-related migration away from cities or moving back in with family members. A good part of these declines occurred among young adult millennials, many of whom remained “stuck in place” even in the late 2010s. Recent migration declines occurred among both local, within-county moves (which are largely made for housing and family reasons) as well as for longer-distance moves between labor markets-though there was a sharper decline in the former.
Since 2012, it has continued dropping to last year’s new low of 9.3%. Migration dropped even further-to the 11% to 12% range-after the Great Recession, reflecting the immediate impact of housing and labor market crashes. By the late 1990s, only about 15% to 16% of the population moved each year, dropping to 13% to 14% in the early 2000s. migration trends have shown a fairly consistent decline since the economically prosperous late-1940s to 1960s, when approximately one-fifth of Americans changed residence annually. This was calculated from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which can be used to track residents’ relocations through March 2020. In the year before COVID-19 swept the country, a smaller share (9.3%) of Americans changed residence than in any year since 1947, when the Census Bureau first started collecting annual migration statistics. Continued decrease in geographic mobilityĪnother indicator of the nation’s demographic stagnation is its low level of geographical mobility.
#Hispanic outlook identity crisis driver#
Low natural increase levels (a result of the aging of the population) will likely continue regardless of federal policy, suggesting that only increased immigration can become a driver of U.S. Still, the entire 2010s decade was one of fewer births, more deaths, and uneven immigration. Part of this sharp decline can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought more deaths and further immigration restrictions. Yet the 2019-to-2020 rate is well below most growth rates over the past 102 years, and less than half the level observed as recently as 2000. National population growth began to dip after 2000, especially after the Great Recession and, in recent years, due to new immigration restrictions. This is the lowest annual growth rate since at least 1900. Recently released Census Bureau population estimates show that from Jto July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. The initial results from the 2020 Census show the second smallest decade-long growth in America’s history. This was especially true in the last half of the 20th century, due to the post-World War II baby boom and rising immigration in the 1980s and 1990s. has been one of the most rapidly growing countries in the industrialized world. Unprecedented stagnation in population growthįor much of the recent past, the U.S.
Below, I recap those trends and conclude by examining alternative Census Bureau projections that reinforce the crucial role immigration will play in future population growth. These trends include an unprecedented stagnation in population growth, a continued decrease in Americans’ geographical mobility, more pronounced population aging, a first-time decline in the size of the white population, and rising racial and ethnic diversity among millennials, Gen Z, and younger groups, which now comprise a majority of the nation’s residents. In the lead-up to that over the past year, the Bureau has released the results of other large surveys and studies, which I have analyzed to pinpoint key demographic trends that the decennial census is likely to confirm. Census Bureau will roll out the results of the 2020 census, its once-a-decade headcount that will give us precise details on the size, growth, age, and racial-ethnic makeup of the nation’s population.
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